Sat Nov 7 · 2026-27
MTL4FINAL
2TOR
MTL 42%DESERVE TO WIN58% TOR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MTL had a 42% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MTLTOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MTL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 2.66 | 3.46 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.14 | 2.19 |
| Shot attempts | 50 | 64 |
| Shots on goal | 28 | 28 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook | 14.2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.46 | +0.30 |
| Cole Caufield | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.61 | +0.24 |
| Chris Kreider | 11.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.42 | -0.20 |
| Kirby Dach | 13.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.13 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 16.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| Lane Hutson | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.40 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 11.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.30 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 26.2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | -0.33 |
| Alexandre Texier | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.35 | -0.44 |
| Jake Evans | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | -0.41 |
| Nick Suzuki | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.61 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.04 |
| Noah Dobson | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | +0.31 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | +0.41 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.65 |
| Phillip Danault | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.64 |
| Adam Engstrom | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Owen Beck | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.15 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.96 | +0.60 |
| William Nylander | 22.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.50 | -0.28 |
| Gavin McKenna | 15.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.37 | +0.02 |
| Darren Raddysh | 29.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.15 |
| Colton Sissons | 13.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.21 |
| Dakota Joshua | 9.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.32 |
| John Tavares | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.46 | +0.06 |
| Jack Roslovic | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.32 | +0.04 |
| Nick Paul | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.06 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.33 |
| Jake McCabe | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.08 |
| Zack MacEwen | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.03 |
| Morgan Rielly | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.37 |
| Troy Stecher | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | +0.14 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.97 |
| Chris Tanev | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.71 |
| Teddy Blueger | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 40 | 4 | 2.66 | -1.34 |
| Jacob Fowler | MTL | 49 | 2 | 3.46 | +1.46 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.