ON-ICE IQ · OTT 2 @ BUF 1

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Wed Nov 4 · 2026-27

OTT2

FINAL

1BUF

OTT 58%DESERVE TO WIN42% BUF

TOSS-UP A toss-up on the shots — OTT had a 58% chance and got it.

Expected goals flow

OTTBUF cumulative xG · dots = goals

	OTT	BUF
Goals	2	1
xG (all)	3.35	2.18
xG (5v5)	2.48	1.69
Shot attempts	55	50
Shots on goal	30	24

OTT skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Philip Tomasino	14.7	0	1	4	0.48	+0.21
Fabian Zetterlund	16.3	0	1	2	0.47	+0.57
Michael Amadio	15.9	1	0	2	0.30	-0.42
Shane Pinto	21.7	1	0	3	0.30	+0.22
Tim Stützle	23.1	0	1	5	0.19	+0.73
Thomas Chabot	24.3	0	1	1	0.02	+0.82
Claude Giroux	16.3	0	0	3	0.47	-0.03
Drake Batherson	20.2	0	0	2	0.39	+0.21
Stephen Halliday	10.5	0	0	0	0.25	+0.40
Nick Cousins	13.3	0	0	2	0.21	+0.48
Carter Yakemchuk	12.9	0	0	2	0.12	+0.03
Sammy Blais	5.9	0	0	1	0.09	+0.26
Jordan Spence	21.9	0	0	0	0.03	+0.77
Hayden Hodgson	4.8	0	0	1	0.02	+0.11
Artem Zub	21.0	0	0	1	0.02	-0.12
Jake Sanderson	25.5	0	0	1	0.00	+0.00
Dylan Cozens	16.2	0	0	0	0.00	-0.24
Nikolas Matinpalo	12.2	0	0	0	0.00	-0.03

BUF skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Peyton Krebs	13.5	1	0	1	0.21	-0.61
Zach Benson	20.3	0	1	3	0.19	-0.52
Tage Thompson	19.6	0	1	2	0.09	-0.60
Josh Doan	16.8	0	0	3	0.66	-0.11
Jack Quinn	20.5	0	0	1	0.36	+0.41
Noah Ostlund	21.4	0	0	4	0.30	+0.45
Sam Carrick	8.7	0	0	2	0.14	+0.15
Josh Norris	10.7	0	0	1	0.10	-0.26
Olen Zellweger	23.8	0	0	1	0.03	+0.10
Zach Metsa	9.2	0	0	1	0.03	-0.23
Jason Zucker	13.3	0	0	1	0.03	-0.89
Owen Power	26.4	0	0	1	0.02	+0.29
Louis Crevier	8.1	0	0	2	0.01	-0.09
Rasmus Dahlin	24.4	0	0	1	0.01	-0.56
Mattias Samuelsson	24.9	0	0	0	0.00	-1.09
Ryan McLeod	13.3	0	0	0	0.00	-0.62
Beck Malenstyn	11.4	0	0	0	0.00	+0.11
Tyson Kozak	11.3	0	0	0	0.00	+0.11

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Samuel Ersson	OTT	33	1	2.18	+1.18
Colten Ellis	BUF	44	2	3.35	+1.35

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.