Tue Nov 3 · 2026-27
CAR1FINAL
4NSH
CAR 54%DESERVE TO WIN46% NSH
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — NSH had a 46% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
CARNSH
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CAR | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 3.61 | 2.88 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.09 | 1.72 |
| Shot attempts | 72 | 54 |
| Shots on goal | 30 | 20 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.49 | -0.13 |
| Jackson Blake | 19.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.13 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.62 |
| Sebastian Aho | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.81 | +0.44 |
| Mark Jankowski | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.55 | +0.35 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.41 | -0.24 |
| Seth Jarvis | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.08 |
| Eric Robinson | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.12 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | +0.43 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.00 |
| Jordan Martinook | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.23 |
| Sean Walker | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | -0.38 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.29 |
| Juuso Välimäki | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.56 |
| K'Andre Miller | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | -0.42 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.25 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.08 |
| William Carrier | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.45 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Colton | 14.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | +0.05 |
| Filip Forsberg | 16.8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | +0.12 |
| Roman Josi | 24.5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.24 | -0.30 |
| Adam Edstrom | 16.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.53 | -0.01 |
| Nick Perbix | 20.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.43 |
| Jack Drury | 17.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.10 |
| Brady Skjei | 21.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Mavrik Bourque | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.52 | -0.37 |
| Vitali Pinchuk | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.26 | -0.23 |
| Nils Hoglander | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.18 |
| Steven Stamkos | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | -0.25 |
| Reid Schaefer | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | -0.17 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | -0.24 |
| Adam Wilsby | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.22 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| Jayden Struble | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.32 |
| Shane Wright | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Daemon Hunt | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.39 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | NSH | 50 | 1 | 3.61 | +2.61 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | 34 | 3 | 2.88 | -0.12 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.