Tue Nov 3 · 2026-27
UTA3FINAL
2TOR
UTA 67%DESERVE TO WIN33% TOR
DESERVED
UTA earned it — a 67% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
UTATOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| UTA | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 4.23 | 2.00 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.37 | 1.32 |
| Shot attempts | 72 | 62 |
| Shots on goal | 36 | 29 |
UTA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller | 18.8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.47 | +0.36 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 25.9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.52 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 16.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.93 | +0.10 |
| Anders Lee | 14.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.39 | +0.58 |
| Dylan Guenther | 16.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | +0.16 |
| Andrew Peeke | 19.7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | +0.52 |
| Lawson Crouse | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.52 | +0.08 |
| Liam O'Brien | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.51 |
| Jack McBain | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.04 |
| Nate Schmidt | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | +0.44 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.61 |
| Barrett Hayton | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.36 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 24.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | +0.40 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.08 |
| Logan Cooley | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | +0.07 |
| Michael Carcone | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.34 |
| Nick DeSimone | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | +0.21 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.01 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 20.0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.53 | +0.41 |
| Jack Roslovic | 18.3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.34 | +0.39 |
| Morgan Rielly | 18.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.06 |
| William Nylander | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | -0.66 |
| Easton Cowan | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.37 |
| Darren Raddysh | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.17 | -0.19 |
| Zack MacEwen | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.23 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | -0.88 |
| Nick Paul | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.59 |
| Gavin McKenna | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.57 |
| Chris Tanev | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.38 |
| Colton Sissons | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.65 |
| Jake McCabe | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.24 |
| Teddy Blueger | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| Troy Stecher | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.48 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
| Dakota Joshua | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
| Vinni Lettieri | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.75 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 55 | 3 | 4.23 | +1.23 |
| Sebastian Cossa | UTA | 43 | 2 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.