Mon Nov 2 · 2026-27
VGK2FINAL SO
3BOS
VGK 47%DESERVE TO WIN53% BOS
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — BOS had a 53% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
VGKBOS
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| VGK | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.71 | 2.88 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.64 | 1.04 |
| Shot attempts | 49 | 60 |
| Shots on goal | 23 | 27 |
VGK skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner | 24.4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | +0.63 |
| Tomas Hertl | 13.8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.44 | +0.43 |
| Mark Stone | 21.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | -0.09 |
| Noah Hanifin | 24.1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.26 | +0.43 |
| Trevor Connelly | 14.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.03 |
| Brett Howden | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.35 |
| Jack Eichel | 24.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | -0.11 |
| Braeden Bowman | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | +0.34 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.36 |
| Jonas Rondbjerg | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.08 |
| Dylan Coghlan | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | +0.35 |
| Brayden McNabb | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.08 |
| William Karlsson | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.18 |
| Nic Dowd | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.12 |
| Shea Theodore | 23.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.05 |
BOS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.63 | +0.17 |
| James Hagens | 17.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.41 | +0.32 |
| Pavel Zacha | 21.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.03 |
| Nikita Zadorov | 19.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.22 |
| Elias Lindholm | 22.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.35 |
| Morgan Geekie | 16.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | -0.63 |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.38 |
| Jonathan Aspirot | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | -0.70 |
| Fraser Minten | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.56 |
| Hampus Lindholm | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.13 |
| Mason Lohrei | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.49 |
| Mark Kastelic | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | -0.41 |
| Charlie McAvoy | 25.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.03 |
| JJ Peterka | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.11 |
| Will Borgen | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.19 |
| Marat Khusnutdinov | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Tanner Jeannot | 9.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Matthew Poitras | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | VGK | 45 | 2 | 2.88 | +0.88 |
| Jeremy Swayman | BOS | 35 | 2 | 2.71 | +0.71 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.