Sat Oct 31 · 2026-27
CGY2FINAL
5COL
CGY 33%DESERVE TO WIN67% COL
DESERVED
COL earned it — a 67% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
CGYCOL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CGY | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 2.27 | 4.23 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.26 | 3.20 |
| Shot attempts | 51 | 58 |
| Shots on goal | 27 | 33 |
CGY skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee | 17.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.68 | +0.14 |
| Martin Pospisil | 14.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.18 |
| Ryan Strome | 11.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.02 |
| Mikael Backlund | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | -0.02 |
| Zayne Parekh | 18.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | +0.00 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.35 | -0.29 |
| Matvei Gridin | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.29 |
| Matt Coronato | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.07 |
| Jonathan Castagna | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.71 |
| Adam Klapka | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | -0.69 |
| Kevin Bahl | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| Aydar Suniev | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.71 |
| Zach Whitecloud | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.75 |
| Morgan Frost | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.39 |
| Simon Nemec | 23.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.60 |
| Yan Kuznetsov | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.42 |
| Maxim Tsyplakov | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.66 |
| Jake Middleton | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar | 24.4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.22 | +0.74 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 19.1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.62 | +0.37 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 15.8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.60 | +0.44 |
| Martin Necas | 20.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.62 |
| Devon Toews | 20.8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.13 |
| Brock Nelson | 13.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.93 | +1.10 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.93 |
| Nazem Kadri | 19.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | -0.41 |
| T.J. Hughes | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.56 | -0.47 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.46 |
| Gavin Brindley | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | +0.75 |
| Parker Kelly | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | -0.16 |
| Brett Kulak | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | +0.47 |
| Sam Malinski | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | -0.86 |
| Brent Burns | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.54 |
| Noah Juulsen | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.84 |
| Nicolas Roy | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 38 | 2 | 2.27 | +0.27 |
| Arsenii Sergeev | CGY | 45 | 5 | 4.23 | -0.77 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.