Sat Oct 31 · 2026-27
TBL4FINAL SO
5NSH
TBL 43%DESERVE TO WIN57% NSH
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — NSH had a 57% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TBLNSH
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TBL | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 3.25 | 3.88 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.43 | 2.76 |
| Shot attempts | 61 | 74 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 33 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 23.7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.90 |
| John Carlson | 19.2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.61 | +0.50 |
| Brayden Point | 23.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.49 | +0.80 |
| Jake Guentzel | 25.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | +0.80 |
| Victor Hedman | 16.7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | -0.66 |
| Conor Geekie | 10.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | -0.14 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 7.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | -0.14 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 25.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.63 |
| Brandon Hagel | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | -0.18 |
| J.J. Moser | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | -0.17 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -1.04 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | -0.18 |
| Max Crozier | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.68 |
| Scott Sabourin | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| Dominic James | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.82 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.28 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.82 |
| Gage Goncalves | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg | 20.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | +0.18 |
| Nick Perbix | 18.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | -0.10 |
| Steven Stamkos | 16.3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1.03 | +0.13 |
| Adam Edstrom | 17.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | -0.25 |
| Reid Schaefer | 11.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.07 |
| Jayden Struble | 17.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.09 |
| Adam Wilsby | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | +0.48 |
| Brady Skjei | 20.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.26 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 19.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.33 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 18.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Ross Colton | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.41 | -0.17 |
| Roman Josi | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.41 | +0.39 |
| Mavrik Bourque | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | +0.15 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.28 | +0.34 |
| Nils Hoglander | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | +0.20 |
| Matthew Wood | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.36 |
| Daemon Hunt | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.03 |
| Jack Drury | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 47 | 4 | 3.88 | -0.12 |
| Justus Annunen | NSH | 44 | 4 | 3.25 | -0.75 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.