Thu Oct 29 · 2026-27
MTL5FINAL
2DAL
MTL 51%DESERVE TO WIN49% DAL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MTL had a 51% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MTLDAL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MTL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 2.50 | 2.14 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.91 | 1.24 |
| Shot attempts | 45 | 38 |
| Shots on goal | 21 | 19 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 18.4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.52 | +0.03 |
| Alex Newhook | 18.8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.46 | +0.20 |
| Phillip Danault | 19.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | +0.09 |
| Noah Dobson | 20.4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.28 | -0.13 |
| Jake Evans | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | +0.17 |
| Adam Engstrom | 10.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | +0.54 |
| Chris Kreider | 12.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.52 |
| Lane Hutson | 21.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.40 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 23.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 18.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Alexandre Texier | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.40 |
| Florian Xhekaj | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.04 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.02 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | +0.58 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.54 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.21 |
| Josh Anderson | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Kirby Dach | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
DAL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 21.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.06 |
| Mikko Rantanen | 23.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.03 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 29.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | +0.08 |
| Jamie Benn | 12.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.17 |
| Jason Robertson | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.39 | -0.14 |
| Roope Hintz | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | -0.17 |
| Arttu Hyry | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | -0.59 |
| Tyler Seguin | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | +0.01 |
| Justin Hryckowian | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.06 |
| Sam Steel | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.53 |
| Thomas Harley | 24.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.08 |
| Trey Taylor | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.13 |
| Lian Bichsel | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.54 |
| Nils Lundkvist | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Tyler Myers | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
| Joel Kiviranta | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.24 |
| Colin Blackwell | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
| Matthew Seminoff | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | DAL | 32 | 4 | 2.50 | -1.50 |
| Jakub Dobes | MTL | 28 | 2 | 2.14 | +0.14 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.