Thu Oct 29 · 2026-27
CBJ2FINAL
3CAR
CBJ 45%DESERVE TO WIN55% CAR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — CAR had a 55% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
CBJCAR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CBJ | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.52 | 2.91 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.73 | 2.06 |
| Shot attempts | 52 | 56 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 27 |
CBJ skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle | 18.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.52 | -0.08 |
| Kent Johnson | 20.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | +0.35 |
| Sean Monahan | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | -0.30 |
| Denton Mateychuk | 24.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.14 |
| Jake Christiansen | 14.7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | -0.36 |
| Zach Werenski | 28.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.14 |
| Adam Fantilli | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.65 | +0.29 |
| Matthew Knies | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.23 |
| Cole Sillinger | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| Mathieu Olivier | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | -0.15 |
| Danton Heinen | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.23 |
| Erik Gudbranson | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.22 |
| Damon Severson | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.37 |
| Dante Fabbro | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.16 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.48 |
| Conor Garland | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Ryan Lomberg | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.34 |
| Luca Del Bel Belluz | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.35 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis | 16.4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.55 | +0.17 |
| Logan Stankoven | 17.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.54 | +0.54 |
| Mark Jankowski | 18.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | +0.30 |
| Jordan Martinook | 17.8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | +0.30 |
| Jackson Blake | 16.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | +0.53 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 21.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | -0.32 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 15.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.39 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | -0.31 |
| William Carrier | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.42 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.63 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.00 |
| Sebastian Aho | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.51 |
| K'Andre Miller | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | +0.09 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.07 |
| Sean Walker | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.02 |
| Juuso Välimäki | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.55 |
| Eric Robinson | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | 38 | 2 | 2.52 | +0.52 |
| Jet Greaves | CBJ | 40 | 3 | 2.91 | -0.09 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.