Tue Oct 27 · 2026-27
BUF2FINAL
0SJS
BUF 55%DESERVE TO WIN45% SJS
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — BUF had a 55% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
BUFSJS
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BUF | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
| xG (all) | 3.65 | 2.75 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.76 | 2.06 |
| Shot attempts | 68 | 64 |
| Shots on goal | 40 | 23 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power | 24.8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.74 |
| Zach Benson | 17.9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.80 | +0.35 |
| Tage Thompson | 17.2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.42 | +0.18 |
| Olen Zellweger | 22.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.84 |
| Konsta Helenius | 11.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.37 |
| Jason Zucker | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.87 | +0.90 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.40 | +0.05 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 24.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | -0.02 |
| Josh Norris | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.81 |
| Jack Quinn | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | -0.53 |
| Ryan McLeod | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | +1.08 |
| Josh Doan | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.50 |
| Noah Ostlund | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.58 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 26.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| Louis Crevier | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| Zach Metsa | 10.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Tyson Kozak | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.06 |
| Peyton Krebs | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
SJS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.48 | +0.19 |
| Michael Kesselring | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.43 | +0.42 |
| Adam Gaudette | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.38 | -0.36 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | +0.18 |
| Collin Graf | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.22 |
| Mason Marchment | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | -0.38 |
| Will Smith | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.38 |
| Michael Misa | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.28 |
| Ty Dellandrea | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.34 |
| Darnell Nurse | 23.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | -0.68 |
| Luca Cagnoni | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.05 |
| Ivar Stenberg | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.15 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.85 |
| Jacob Trouba | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.32 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.05 |
| Sam Dickinson | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.16 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.53 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.76 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | BUF | 41 | 0 | 2.75 | +2.75 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | SJS | 53 | 1 | 3.65 | +2.65 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.