Tue Oct 27 · 2026-27
OTT1FINAL
4VGK
OTT 43%DESERVE TO WIN57% VGK
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — VGK had a 57% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
OTTVGK
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| OTT | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 2.62 | 3.21 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.29 | 2.57 |
| Shot attempts | 68 | 57 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 29 |
OTT skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto | 23.1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.50 | +0.17 |
| Drake Batherson | 17.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.22 |
| Dylan Cozens | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | -0.52 |
| Stephen Halliday | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | -0.16 |
| Warren Foegele | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | -0.23 |
| Ridly Greig | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.28 |
| Jake Sanderson | 26.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | -0.41 |
| Tim Stützle | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.59 |
| Michael Amadio | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| Jordan Spence | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.32 |
| Artem Zub | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.42 |
| Claude Giroux | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.74 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.65 |
| Andre Burakovsky | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.27 |
| Nikolas Matinpalo | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | -0.45 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.71 |
| Tyler Kleven | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Nick Cousins | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
VGK skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Bowman | 11.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.53 | +0.78 |
| Mark Stone | 20.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.39 | +0.17 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 18.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | +0.60 |
| Jack Eichel | 21.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | +0.52 |
| William Karlsson | 20.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| Trevor Connelly | 14.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.34 |
| Nic Dowd | 9.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | +0.13 |
| Raphael Lavoie | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.13 |
| Mitch Marner | 21.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.06 |
| Shea Theodore | 21.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.78 |
| Ville Heinola | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.21 |
| Brett Howden | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | +0.21 |
| Tomas Hertl | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.66 |
| Brayden McNabb | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.74 |
| Noah Hanifin | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.41 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.07 | +0.35 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | +0.27 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson | OTT | 49 | 2 | 3.21 | +1.21 |
| Adin Hill | VGK | 41 | 1 | 2.62 | +1.62 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.