Tue Oct 27 · 2026-27
MTL2FINAL
0STL
MTL 29%DESERVE TO WIN71% STL
STOLE IT
MTL stole it — only a 29% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
MTLSTL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MTL | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
| xG (all) | 2.16 | 4.67 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.63 | 3.35 |
| Shot attempts | 49 | 80 |
| Shots on goal | 20 | 46 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Matheson | 23.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | -0.10 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 12.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.31 |
| Florian Xhekaj | 6.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.28 |
| Alexandre Texier | 12.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | +0.19 |
| Kirby Dach | 13.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.53 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.54 | -0.40 |
| Josh Anderson | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | -1.55 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | -0.29 |
| Cole Caufield | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.19 | -0.92 |
| Noah Dobson | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.65 |
| Lane Hutson | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.38 |
| Phillip Danault | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.53 |
| Alex Newhook | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -1.08 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.48 |
| Chris Kreider | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.84 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Jake Evans | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Adam Engstrom | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.85 |
STL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Broberg | 26.2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.75 | +1.13 |
| Dylan Holloway | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.75 | +0.40 |
| Connor McMichael | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.72 | +1.20 |
| Jake Neighbours | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.67 | +0.65 |
| Jonatan Berggren | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.44 | +1.23 |
| Mason McTavish | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.30 | +1.04 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | +0.57 |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | +0.53 |
| Adam Jiricek | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.58 |
| Aleksanteri Kaskimaki | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.65 |
| Alexey Toropchenko | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.53 |
| Dalibor Dvorsky | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.39 |
| Brandon Carlo | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.63 |
| Colton Parayko | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.34 |
| Pius Suter | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | -0.34 |
| Cam Fowler | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.52 |
| Justin Barron | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.22 |
| Robert Thomas | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.63 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | STL | 35 | 2 | 2.16 | +0.16 |
| Jacob Fowler | MTL | 61 | 0 | 4.67 | +4.67 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.