Tue Oct 27 · 2026-27
BOS1FINAL
2CAR
BOS 34%DESERVE TO WIN66% CAR
DESERVED
CAR earned it — a 66% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
BOSCAR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BOS | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 1.85 | 3.54 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.21 | 2.41 |
| Shot attempts | 39 | 64 |
| Shots on goal | 15 | 30 |
BOS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha | 20.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.34 | -1.32 |
| Elias Lindholm | 19.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.01 |
| David Pastrnak | 22.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | -1.27 |
| Morgan Geekie | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.48 | +0.16 |
| Tanner Jeannot | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.46 |
| Fraser Minten | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.08 |
| Matthew Poitras | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | +0.21 |
| JJ Peterka | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | -1.28 |
| Mark Kastelic | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| James Hagens | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.08 |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| Charlie McAvoy | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.03 |
| Hampus Lindholm | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Nikita Zadorov | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.71 |
| Will Borgen | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.82 |
| Mason Lohrei | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.31 |
| Marat Khusnutdinov | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| Frederic Brunet | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.56 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 21.3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.85 | +0.81 |
| Jackson Blake | 16.8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.79 | +1.06 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 16.3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.46 | +0.71 |
| William Carrier | 14.0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.46 | +1.06 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 16.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.85 |
| Logan Stankoven | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | +1.18 |
| Eric Robinson | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.25 |
| Seth Jarvis | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.30 |
| Jordan Martinook | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.37 |
| Sean Walker | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | -0.43 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +1.16 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +1.13 |
| Juuso Välimäki | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.33 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.32 |
| K'Andre Miller | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Mark Jankowski | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.33 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.46 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.37 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman | BOS | 46 | 2 | 3.54 | +1.54 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | 21 | 1 | 1.85 | +0.85 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.