Mon Oct 26 · 2026-27
TOR2FINAL
5CGY
TOR 42%DESERVE TO WIN58% CGY
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — CGY had a 58% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TORCGY
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TOR | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.88 | 2.25 |
| Shot attempts | 45 | 69 |
| Shots on goal | 28 | 34 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 19.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.47 | +0.52 |
| Easton Cowan | 15.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | +0.12 |
| William Nylander | 19.2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.33 | -0.56 |
| Jack Roslovic | 18.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.70 |
| Troy Stecher | 22.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.46 |
| Morgan Rielly | 19.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.12 |
| Nick Paul | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | -0.59 |
| Zack MacEwen | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.06 |
| Gavin McKenna | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.32 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.08 |
| Darren Raddysh | 23.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | -0.56 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | -0.69 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | +0.02 |
| Vinni Lettieri | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.35 |
| Teddy Blueger | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | +0.01 |
| Colton Sissons | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.65 |
| Dakota Mermis | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| Jake McCabe | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.02 |
CGY skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Gridin | 16.0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.35 | +0.22 |
| Joel Farabee | 24.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | +0.03 |
| Martin Pospisil | 12.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.39 | +0.73 |
| Matt Coronato | 18.7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | -0.27 |
| Simon Nemec | 21.9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.48 |
| Zayne Parekh | 20.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.24 | +0.18 |
| Mikael Backlund | 18.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.29 |
| Yan Kuznetsov | 13.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.22 |
| Morgan Frost | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.44 | +0.11 |
| Ryan Strome | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.41 | +0.17 |
| Aydar Suniev | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.32 | +0.55 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | +0.13 |
| Jonathan Castagna | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.04 |
| Kevin Bahl | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.30 |
| Adam Klapka | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.18 |
| Zach Whitecloud | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | +0.63 |
| Brennan Othmann | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.13 |
| Jake Middleton | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.51 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 49 | 3 | 3.40 | +0.40 |
| Devin Cooley | CGY | 40 | 2 | 2.60 | +0.60 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.