Sun Oct 25 · 2026-27
COL2FINAL
6NSH
COL 36%DESERVE TO WIN64% NSH
DESERVED
NSH earned it — a 64% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
COLNSH
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| COL | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 6 |
| xG (all) | 2.41 | 3.92 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.88 | 2.50 |
| Shot attempts | 45 | 61 |
| Shots on goal | 21 | 35 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 19.1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | +0.28 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 18.5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.61 | +0.44 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.62 |
| Devon Toews | 20.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.45 |
| Sam Malinski | 19.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.88 |
| Brock Nelson | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | +0.04 |
| T.J. Hughes | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.70 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | -1.01 |
| Taylor Makar | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.18 |
| Nazem Kadri | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| Cale Makar | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.17 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | -0.84 |
| Josh Manson | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | +0.04 |
| Logan O'Connor | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.23 |
| Brett Kulak | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -1.10 |
| Parker Kelly | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.17 |
| Brent Burns | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.07 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly | 20.8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.52 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos | 17.8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.81 | -0.04 |
| Filip Forsberg | 18.8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | +0.28 |
| Roman Josi | 21.2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.16 | +0.10 |
| Ross Colton | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.63 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.27 |
| Jack Drury | 16.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.14 |
| Brady Skjei | 18.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | +0.40 |
| Mavrik Bourque | 15.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.03 |
| Matthew Wood | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.29 | +0.31 |
| Daemon Hunt | 9.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.36 |
| Adam Wilsby | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | -0.68 |
| Adam Edstrom | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | +0.15 |
| Nick Perbix | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.99 |
| Nicolas Hague | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.16 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.05 |
| Jayden Struble | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Nils Hoglander | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood | COL | 48 | 6 | 3.92 | -2.08 |
| Justus Annunen | NSH | 35 | 2 | 2.41 | +0.41 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.