Sun Oct 25 · 2026-27
MTL2FINAL
1WPG
MTL 41%DESERVE TO WIN59% WPG
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MTL had a 41% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MTLWPG
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MTL | WPG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 3.20 | 4.19 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.61 | 2.38 |
| Shot attempts | 57 | 73 |
| Shots on goal | 21 | 34 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 15.8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | +0.06 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 16.4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | +0.13 |
| Lane Hutson | 21.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.67 |
| Noah Dobson | 19.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | +1.03 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 23.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.66 |
| Jake Evans | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.86 |
| Alexandre Texier | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | +0.46 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.05 |
| Josh Anderson | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | -1.07 |
| Phillip Danault | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.42 |
| Alex Newhook | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | -1.15 |
| Florian Xhekaj | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.71 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.20 |
| Kirby Dach | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | +0.67 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.44 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Mike Matheson | 25.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Chris Kreider | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.86 |
WPG skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi | 18.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.52 | -1.21 |
| Isak Rosen | 15.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | -0.34 |
| Haydn Fleury | 16.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.19 |
| Mark Scheifele | 25.1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.99 | +1.19 |
| Kyle Connor | 24.4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.87 | +1.11 |
| Cole Perfetti | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.56 | +1.19 |
| Neal Pionk | 25.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.39 | +0.37 |
| Alex Iafallo | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.75 |
| Elias Salomonsson | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.11 |
| Dawson Mercer | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.13 |
| Adam Lowry | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.40 |
| Mario Ferraro | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.07 | -0.43 |
| Viggo Björck | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -1.02 |
| Cole Koepke | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.09 |
| Dylan DeMelo | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.44 |
| Dylan Samberg | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Morgan Barron | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Nino Niederreiter | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | WPG | 42 | 2 | 3.20 | +1.20 |
| Jacob Fowler | MTL | 52 | 1 | 4.19 | +3.19 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.