Sat Oct 24 · 2026-27
TBL4FINAL OT
5UTA
TBL 44%DESERVE TO WIN56% UTA
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — UTA had a 56% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TBLUTA
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TBL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 3.57 | 4.11 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.20 | 2.83 |
| Shot attempts | 60 | 60 |
| Shots on goal | 33 | 28 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 18.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.80 | -0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 20.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.48 | -0.98 |
| Conor Geekie | 10.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.35 | -0.23 |
| Jake Guentzel | 19.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | -0.28 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 14.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | +0.51 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 20.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.21 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 18.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.04 |
| Erik Cernak | 21.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.05 |
| Scott Sabourin | 9.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
| Brandon Hagel | 22.9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.51 | -0.51 |
| Gage Goncalves | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | -0.28 |
| John Carlson | 21.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | -0.21 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.24 |
| J.J. Moser | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | -0.43 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.65 |
| Emil Lilleberg | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
UTA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck | 21.1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | +0.04 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 16.0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.45 | -0.13 |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 16.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.62 | +1.44 |
| Anders Lee | 15.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.62 | +0.91 |
| Barrett Hayton | 15.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.51 | +0.79 |
| Clayton Keller | 16.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | +0.15 |
| Dylan Guenther | 19.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | -0.49 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 26.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | +0.72 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 25.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | +1.27 |
| Andrew Peeke | 20.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.09 |
| Jack McBain | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 | +0.30 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | +0.24 |
| Nate Schmidt | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.35 |
| Logan Cooley | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | -0.56 |
| Nick DeSimone | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.44 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.42 |
| Lawson Crouse | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Daniil But | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.35 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | UTA | 48 | 4 | 3.57 | -0.43 |
| Dennis Hildeby | TBL | 47 | 5 | 4.11 | -0.89 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.