Sat Oct 24 · 2026-27
BUF3FINAL OT
4WSH
BUF 35%DESERVE TO WIN65% WSH
DESERVED
WSH earned it — a 65% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
BUFWSH
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BUF | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 2.43 | 4.18 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.69 | 2.71 |
| Shot attempts | 55 | 58 |
| Shots on goal | 21 | 34 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Benson | 18.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.51 | +0.13 |
| Jack Quinn | 17.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.41 | -0.41 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 27.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.31 | +0.23 |
| Ryan McLeod | 17.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.05 |
| Josh Doan | 12.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.10 |
| Olen Zellweger | 21.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.88 |
| Owen Power | 30.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | -0.97 |
| Noah Ostlund | 16.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.09 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 25.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | +0.04 |
| Josh Norris | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.44 |
| Tage Thompson | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.50 |
| Louis Crevier | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.33 |
| Konsta Helenius | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.01 |
| Tyson Kozak | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.40 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| Peyton Krebs | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Jason Zucker | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.65 |
| Dennis Gilbert | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.40 |
WSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome | 21.0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.75 | +1.07 |
| Jakob Chychrun | 25.0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.45 | +0.74 |
| Jordan Kyrou | 16.9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | +0.78 |
| Alex Tuch | 22.5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | +0.58 |
| Justin Sourdif | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | +0.25 |
| Martin Fehérváry | 23.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.52 |
| Aliaksei Protas | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.50 | +0.57 |
| Tom Wilson | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.43 | +0.10 |
| Ryan Leonard | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.39 | +0.21 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.14 |
| Ilya Protas | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.32 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.04 |
| Cole Hutson | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.00 |
| Boone Jenner | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.37 |
| Matt Roy | 24.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.39 |
| Timothy Liljegren | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.53 |
| Dylan McIlrath | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | WSH | 33 | 3 | 2.43 | -0.57 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 48 | 4 | 4.18 | +0.18 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.