Fri Oct 23 · 2026-27
TBL3FINAL
6COL
TBL 59%DESERVE TO WIN41% COL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — COL had a 41% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TBLCOL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TBL | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 6 |
| xG (all) | 3.74 | 2.39 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.78 | 1.84 |
| Shot attempts | 76 | 47 |
| Shots on goal | 34 | 24 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 22.2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1.16 | +1.05 |
| Brayden Point | 20.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.37 | +1.12 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 21.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.26 | +0.15 |
| Gage Goncalves | 18.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | +0.72 |
| Max Crozier | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | +0.44 |
| Brandon Hagel | 20.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | +0.65 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | -0.14 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | +0.02 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | +0.02 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.20 |
| Conor Geekie | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | -0.18 |
| Dominic James | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.20 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| J.J. Moser | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| John Carlson | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.02 |
| Erik Cernak | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.19 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.78 |
| Victor Hedman | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 18.2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.33 | -0.44 |
| Martin Necas | 16.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | -0.21 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 18.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.51 |
| Devon Toews | 17.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| T.J. Hughes | 13.2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.42 | -0.38 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 11.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | +0.10 |
| Nazem Kadri | 15.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.06 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 11.8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.06 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 13.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| Logan O'Connor | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.52 | +0.10 |
| Cale Makar | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.13 |
| Parker Kelly | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.10 |
| Brock Nelson | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.35 |
| Brent Burns | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.84 |
| Sam Malinski | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.37 |
| Brett Kulak | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
| Josh Manson | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.43 |
| Taylor Makar | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.13 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 34 | 5 | 2.39 | -2.61 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 53 | 3 | 3.74 | +0.74 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.