Fri Oct 23 · 2026-27
MTL4FINAL
1CHI
MTL 53%DESERVE TO WIN47% CHI
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MTL had a 53% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MTLCHI
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MTL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 2.71 | 2.11 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.88 | 1.07 |
| Shot attempts | 53 | 40 |
| Shots on goal | 28 | 21 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans | 17.2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | +0.46 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 23.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.70 |
| Phillip Danault | 18.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.42 | +0.56 |
| Mike Matheson | 20.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | +0.48 |
| Kirby Dach | 11.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | +0.43 |
| Owen Beck | 10.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.36 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 22.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.38 |
| Cole Caufield | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.35 | -0.26 |
| Josh Anderson | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | +0.15 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | -0.27 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.50 |
| Noah Dobson | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | -0.15 |
| Alex Newhook | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.08 |
| Chris Kreider | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.13 |
| Alexandre Texier | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | +0.57 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 10.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.22 |
| Lane Hutson | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.42 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.27 |
CHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane | 20.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.28 | -0.33 |
| Connor Bedard | 20.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.05 |
| Roman Kantserov | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.55 | -0.09 |
| Jordan Greenway | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | +0.03 |
| Ryan Greene | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.32 | +0.11 |
| Ryan Donato | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.21 |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.40 |
| Cole Smith | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.07 |
| Ethan Del Mastro | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.23 |
| Anton Frondell | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.73 |
| Artyom Levshunov | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.31 |
| Alex Vlasic | 21.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| Wyatt Kaiser | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Ian Cole | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
| Frank Nazar | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Sam Rinzel | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.54 |
| Oliver Moore | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight | CHI | 44 | 3 | 2.71 | -0.29 |
| Jacob Fowler | MTL | 28 | 1 | 2.11 | +1.11 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.