Thu Oct 22 · 2026-27
NYR4FINAL
5TOR
NYR 40%DESERVE TO WIN60% TOR
DESERVED
TOR earned it — a 60% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
NYRTOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| NYR | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 2.29 | 3.28 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.01 | 2.80 |
| Shot attempts | 57 | 61 |
| Shots on goal | 25 | 35 |
NYR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox | 24.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.11 | +0.83 |
| Mika Zibanejad | 21.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | -0.62 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 16.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | -0.19 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 10.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | +0.40 |
| Tye Kartye | 16.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | -0.35 |
| Justin Dowling | 6.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | +0.36 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | 19.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.60 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 25.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | +0.48 |
| Gabe Perreault | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | -0.57 |
| Will Cuylle | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.37 |
| J.T. Miller | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.32 |
| Taylor Raddysh | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.37 |
| Noah Laba | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.21 |
| Sean Durzi | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | -1.01 |
| Braden Schneider | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.43 |
| Marcus Pettersson | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -1.24 |
| Alberts Smits | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime | 14.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.60 |
| Teddy Blueger | 15.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.42 |
| Zack MacEwen | 7.1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.24 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.49 | +0.40 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 18.4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.33 | +0.41 |
| William Nylander | 20.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.43 |
| Jack Roslovic | 16.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | +0.33 |
| Troy Stecher | 20.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.08 |
| Gavin McKenna | 10.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.53 |
| Jake McCabe | 21.1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.08 | +0.26 |
| Morgan Rielly | 21.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | +0.48 |
| Auston Matthews | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.77 | +0.68 |
| Nick Paul | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.21 |
| Darren Raddysh | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.78 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.21 |
| Nick Blankenburg | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.07 |
| Colton Sissons | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.29 |
| Vinni Lettieri | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.53 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 41 | 4 | 2.29 | -1.71 |
| Dylan Garand | NYR | 55 | 5 | 3.28 | -1.72 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.