Wed Oct 21 · 2026-27
FLA1FINAL
5OTT
FLA 38%DESERVE TO WIN62% OTT
DESERVED
OTT earned it — a 62% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
FLAOTT
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| FLA | OTT | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 1.69 | 2.77 |
| xG (5v5) | 0.87 | 1.57 |
| Shot attempts | 42 | 50 |
| Shots on goal | 19 | 30 |
FLA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 13.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | -0.10 |
| Seth Jones | 21.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | -0.27 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 17.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | -0.16 |
| Sam Bennett | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.38 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | +0.22 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.09 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.94 |
| Gustav Forsling | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.58 |
| Lars Eller | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.81 |
| Anton Lundell | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.13 |
| Niko Mikkola | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.47 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.16 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.15 |
| Radko Gudas | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Sam Reinhart | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.46 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Cole Schwindt | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Bokondji Imama | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
OTT skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Halliday | 14.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.43 | -0.09 |
| Tim Stützle | 19.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | +0.51 |
| Jake Sanderson | 22.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | +0.15 |
| Dylan Cozens | 18.4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.45 | +0.11 |
| Warren Foegele | 14.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.26 | +0.33 |
| Shane Pinto | 20.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.42 |
| Claude Giroux | 13.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.67 |
| Drake Batherson | 17.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.07 |
| Nikolas Matinpalo | 13.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.39 |
| Ridly Greig | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.33 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.44 |
| Tyler Kleven | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.45 |
| Jordan Spence | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.29 |
| Michael Amadio | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.07 |
| Nick Cousins | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.38 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| Artem Zub | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Hayden Hodgson | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | OTT | 23 | 1 | 1.67 | +0.67 |
| Akira Schmid | FLA | 38 | 5 | 2.77 | -2.23 |
| Samuel Ersson | OTT | 3 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.02 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.