Wed Oct 21 · 2026-27
PHI3FINAL
1BUF
PHI 47%DESERVE TO WIN53% BUF
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — PHI had a 47% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
PHIBUF
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| PHI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 3.66 | 3.83 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.86 | 2.24 |
| Shot attempts | 54 | 55 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 28 |
PHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Knuble | 10.4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.35 | +0.16 |
| Oliver Bonk | 19.6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.23 |
| Trevor Zegras | 16.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.69 | -0.29 |
| Denver Barkey | 12.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.39 | +0.26 |
| Jamie Drysdale | 24.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | -0.82 |
| Matvei Michkov | 18.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.13 |
| Tyson Foerster | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.51 | -0.36 |
| Alex Bump | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.43 | -0.26 |
| Christian Dvorak | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.38 |
| Porter Martone | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.00 |
| Travis Sanheim | 26.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.24 |
| Noel Acciari | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.29 |
| Sean Couturier | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.30 |
| Jacob Gaucher | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.30 |
| Nick Seeler | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.65 |
| Simon Benoit | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Noah Cates | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Hunter McDonald | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.57 | +0.85 |
| Noah Ostlund | 21.7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | +0.55 |
| Jason Zucker | 12.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.47 | -0.41 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 26.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.47 | -0.17 |
| Tage Thompson | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.29 | +0.02 |
| Zach Benson | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | +0.85 |
| Josh Doan | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.08 |
| Olen Zellweger | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.40 |
| Ryan McLeod | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.05 |
| Jiri Kulich | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.16 |
| Josh Norris | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | -0.06 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.15 |
| Owen Power | 26.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.42 |
| Zach Metsa | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 22.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.06 |
| Louis Crevier | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
| Konsta Helenius | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| Peyton Krebs | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.28 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | PHI | 40 | 1 | 3.83 | +2.83 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 39 | 3 | 3.66 | +0.66 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.