ON-ICE IQ · TBL 6 @ VGK 2

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Tue Oct 20 · 2026-27

TBL6

FINAL

2VGK

TBL 36%DESERVE TO WIN64% VGK

STOLE IT TBL stole it — only a 36% chance to win on the shots.

Expected goals flow

TBLVGK cumulative xG · dots = goals

	TBL	VGK
Goals	6	2
xG (all)	2.98	4.70
xG (5v5)	2.34	2.87
Shot attempts	56	62
Shots on goal	21	34

TBL skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Nikita Kucherov	18.3	1	2	2	0.30	-0.02
Anthony Cirelli	10.5	2	0	2	0.60	+0.13
Brandon Hagel	18.9	1	0	3	0.76	+0.32
John Carlson	17.8	1	0	4	0.24	+0.05
Victor Hedman	16.9	1	0	2	0.05	+0.34
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	12.9	0	1	0	0.00	-0.63
Brayden Point	16.6	0	0	1	0.20	-0.15
Jake Guentzel	18.3	0	0	0	0.17	+0.24
Zemgus Girgensons	17.4	0	0	2	0.16	-0.57
Ryan McDonagh	17.7	0	0	0	0.13	-0.48
Conor Geekie	14.6	0	0	1	0.13	+0.06
Pontus Holmberg	13.7	0	0	1	0.11	-0.81
Jeffrey Viel	12.9	0	0	0	0.07	-0.03
Ilya Mikheyev	17.6	0	0	2	0.03	-0.61
Erik Cernak	20.5	0	0	0	0.02	-0.33
J.J. Moser	17.1	0	0	1	0.01	+0.14
Gage Goncalves	15.4	0	0	0	0.00	-0.08
Emil Lilleberg	15.1	0	0	0	0.00	-0.21

VGK skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Mitch Marner	17.4	0	1	5	0.67	+0.43
Braeden Bowman	12.1	0	1	2	0.51	+0.66
Mark Stone	18.5	1	0	2	0.41	-0.57
Ivan Barbashev	16.1	1	0	2	0.39	+0.27
William Karlsson	16.0	0	0	3	0.66	-0.10
Tomas Hertl	17.2	0	0	5	0.54	+0.82
Rasmus Andersson	19.4	0	0	1	0.32	-0.12
Brett Howden	14.8	0	0	1	0.22	-0.42
Shea Theodore	20.6	0	0	3	0.22	+1.13
Trevor Connelly	16.3	0	0	1	0.20	+0.91
Marc Gatcomb	12.8	0	0	1	0.20	-0.13
Jeremy Lauzon	17.9	0	0	2	0.13	-0.08
Brayden McNabb	17.8	0	0	2	0.11	+1.04
Jack Eichel	19.6	0	0	0	0.05	-0.11
Noah Hanifin	19.3	0	0	1	0.03	-0.48
Raphael Lavoie	11.9	0	0	1	0.03	-0.09
Dylan Coghlan	15.7	0	0	2	0.02	-0.43
Nic Dowd	12.2	0	0	0	0.00	-0.08

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	TBL	49	2	4.70	+2.70
Carter Hart	VGK	38	6	2.98	-3.02

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.