ON-ICE IQ · SJS 4 @ MTL 3

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Tue Oct 20 · 2026-27

SJS4

FINAL OT

3MTL

SJS 48%DESERVE TO WIN52% MTL

TOSS-UP A toss-up on the shots — SJS had a 48% chance and got it.

Expected goals flow

SJSMTL cumulative xG · dots = goals

	SJS	MTL
Goals	4	3
xG (all)	3.42	3.50
xG (5v5)	2.74	3.24
Shot attempts	51	77
Shots on goal	30	34

SJS skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Macklin Celebrini	23.1	2	1	6	0.78	+0.20
Michael Misa	14.2	1	0	3	0.53	-0.58
Ivar Stenberg	17.7	0	1	3	0.37	-0.52
Will Smith	18.8	0	1	1	0.18	+0.14
Tyler Toffoli	12.3	1	0	1	0.18	+0.03
Kiefer Sherwood	16.2	0	1	2	0.10	-0.51
Jacob Trouba	23.1	0	1	1	0.01	-0.51
Collin Graf	15.8	0	0	3	0.45	+0.03
Mason Marchment	15.1	0	0	2	0.41	+0.04
Michael Kesselring	20.5	0	0	1	0.13	-0.51
Barclay Goodrow	11.5	0	0	1	0.11	-0.17
Ty Dellandrea	11.6	0	0	1	0.11	-0.16
Nolan Allan	16.9	0	0	2	0.02	-0.17
Sam Dickinson	20.2	0	0	0	0.01	-0.49
Dmitry Orlov	17.6	0	0	2	0.01	+0.43
Igor Chernyshov	17.0	0	0	1	0.01	+0.15
Darnell Nurse	20.3	0	0	0	0.00	+0.25
Zack Ostapchuk	10.8	0	0	0	0.00	-0.15

MTL skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Cole Caufield	19.6	1	1	3	0.45	+0.18
Nick Suzuki	21.1	1	1	4	0.41	+0.33
Juraj Slafkovský	17.3	1	1	1	0.25	+0.17
Phillip Danault	15.7	0	1	4	0.39	+0.89
Lane Hutson	25.8	0	1	2	0.07	+0.13
Josh Anderson	16.2	0	0	2	0.26	-1.13
Oliver Kapanen	10.5	0	0	2	0.24	+0.54
Chris Kreider	15.5	0	0	1	0.22	-0.83
Alexandre Texier	13.2	0	0	1	0.21	+0.82
Kirby Dach	10.2	0	0	1	0.21	+0.35
Zachary Bolduc	14.9	0	0	0	0.20	+0.78
Adam Engstrom	12.9	0	0	2	0.17	+0.14
Noah Dobson	21.7	0	0	4	0.15	-0.18
Kaiden Guhle	22.9	0	0	3	0.13	+0.31
Alex Newhook	16.4	0	0	1	0.10	-0.92
Alexandre Carrier	22.2	0	0	1	0.03	+0.54
Arber Xhekaj	13.2	0	0	1	0.01	+0.07
Jake Evans	14.0	0	0	1	0.00	+0.33

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic	SJS	56	3	3.50	+0.50
Jakub Dobes	MTL	41	4	3.42	-0.58

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.