Mon Oct 19 · 2026-27
SJS1FINAL
3TOR
SJS 48%DESERVE TO WIN52% TOR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — TOR had a 52% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
SJSTOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| SJS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 3.86 | 3.91 |
| xG (5v5) | 3.14 | 1.98 |
| Shot attempts | 63 | 66 |
| Shots on goal | 31 | 32 |
SJS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment | 15.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.68 | +0.53 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 13.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.42 |
| Will Smith | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.62 | +1.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini | 22.0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.62 | +0.79 |
| Darnell Nurse | 23.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | -0.11 |
| Jacob Trouba | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.62 |
| Michael Misa | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.22 |
| Sam Dickinson | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.71 |
| Igor Chernyshov | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | +1.12 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | -0.16 |
| Collin Graf | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.10 |
| Luca Cagnoni | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.30 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.04 |
| Ivar Stenberg | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.42 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.15 |
| Michael Kesselring | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | +0.76 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 20.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.63 | -0.71 |
| William Nylander | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | -0.10 |
| Nick Paul | 18.9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | -0.05 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 17.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.20 |
| Darren Raddysh | 26.6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.27 | -0.79 |
| Gavin McKenna | 11.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | -0.16 |
| Colton Sissons | 16.2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | -0.41 |
| Jack Roslovic | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | -0.57 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | -0.46 |
| Morgan Rielly | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.20 |
| Teddy Blueger | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | -0.19 |
| Easton Cowan | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | -0.38 |
| Zack MacEwen | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.23 |
| Nick Blankenburg | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.09 |
| Jake McCabe | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -1.07 |
| Troy Stecher | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.24 |
| Vinni Lettieri | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.19 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.57 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 47 | 1 | 3.86 | +2.86 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | SJS | 55 | 2 | 3.91 | +1.91 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.