Mon Oct 19 · 2026-27
COL2FINAL
3PHI
COL 45%DESERVE TO WIN55% PHI
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — PHI had a 55% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
COLPHI
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| COL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.41 | 2.81 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.79 | 1.77 |
| Shot attempts | 68 | 50 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 24 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | -0.14 |
| T.J. Hughes | 16.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | +0.41 |
| Martin Necas | 17.7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.35 |
| Devon Toews | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| Sam Malinski | 14.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | +0.11 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 16.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.16 |
| Brock Nelson | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.41 | +0.34 |
| Nazem Kadri | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | -0.23 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.30 | -0.50 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.19 | +0.44 |
| Cale Makar | 23.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | -0.09 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.02 |
| Parker Kelly | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.04 |
| Josh Manson | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.22 |
| Brent Burns | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.06 |
| Brett Kulak | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| Noah Juulsen | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Gavin Brindley | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
PHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | 17.8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.40 | +0.59 |
| Matvei Michkov | 14.6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.70 | -0.02 |
| Noel Acciari | 18.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.72 | +0.43 |
| Denver Barkey | 16.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | -0.42 |
| Oliver Bonk | 24.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Noah Cates | 13.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.02 |
| Michael Bunting | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | -0.03 |
| Sean Couturier | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.08 |
| Alex Bump | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.36 |
| Porter Martone | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.10 |
| Cole Knuble | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.49 |
| Jamie Drysdale | 22.9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.10 | -0.53 |
| Travis Sanheim | 28.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.10 | +0.32 |
| Christian Dvorak | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.50 |
| Nick Seeler | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.44 |
| Jacob Gaucher | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Hunter McDonald | 10.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| David Jiricek | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 32 | 3 | 2.81 | -0.19 |
| Joseph Woll | PHI | 42 | 2 | 2.41 | +0.41 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.