Sun Oct 18 · 2026-27
CAR2FINAL
3CGY
CAR 58%DESERVE TO WIN42% CGY
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — CGY had a 42% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
CARCGY
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CAR | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 4.29 | 3.00 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.98 | 1.98 |
| Shot attempts | 81 | 58 |
| Shots on goal | 36 | 34 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.84 | +0.50 |
| Eric Robinson | 12.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.12 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 12.8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.29 | +0.06 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 22.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | +0.39 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 21.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | +0.34 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 7.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | -0.07 |
| Jackson Blake | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.39 | +0.10 |
| Logan Stankoven | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.37 | +0.33 |
| William Carrier | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.34 | +0.59 |
| K'Andre Miller | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | +0.51 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | +0.31 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.06 |
| Jordan Martinook | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.21 |
| Sean Walker | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.65 |
| Bradly Nadeau | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.18 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.45 |
| Mike Reilly | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.06 |
| Felix Unger Sörum | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.25 |
CGY skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost | 15.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.04 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 16.7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.63 | +0.16 |
| Matt Coronato | 19.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.54 | -0.67 |
| Joel Farabee | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.42 |
| Matvei Gridin | 15.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.58 |
| Zayne Parekh | 16.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| Jake Middleton | 18.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.70 |
| Simon Nemec | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.41 | -0.14 |
| Jonathan Castagna | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | +0.08 |
| Kevin Bahl | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.28 |
| Brennan Othmann | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.06 |
| Adam Klapka | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | +0.09 |
| Mikael Backlund | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.29 |
| Martin Pospisil | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.76 |
| Yan Kuznetsov | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.63 |
| Zach Whitecloud | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.72 |
| Aydar Suniev | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.05 |
| Ryan Strome | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.66 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley | CGY | 64 | 2 | 4.29 | +2.29 |
| Brandon Bussi | CAR | 41 | 3 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.