Sat Oct 17 · 2026-27
SJS3FINAL SO
4DET
SJS 59%DESERVE TO WIN41% DET
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — DET had a 41% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
SJSDET
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| SJS | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 4.49 | 3.04 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.98 | 1.67 |
| Shot attempts | 80 | 57 |
| Shots on goal | 34 | 27 |
SJS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 27.5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1.22 | +0.65 |
| Ivar Stenberg | 16.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.31 | -0.32 |
| Will Smith | 25.2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.98 | +0.85 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 23.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | +0.13 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 20.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.09 |
| Michael Kesselring | 20.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.27 |
| Collin Graf | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.41 | +0.28 |
| Mason Marchment | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | -0.38 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | +0.32 |
| Jacob Trouba | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.13 |
| Igor Chernyshov | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.79 |
| Nolan Allan | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | -0.05 |
| Darnell Nurse | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.06 | +0.22 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.21 |
| Michael Misa | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.62 |
| Sam Dickinson | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | +0.09 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.44 |
DET skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Finnie | 18.8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.67 | -0.02 |
| Moritz Seider | 29.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.22 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 21.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.49 | -0.12 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 19.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.44 | +0.19 |
| Justin Faulk | 19.7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | -0.03 |
| Michael Rasmussen | 18.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | 17.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.08 |
| Lucas Raymond | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.56 | -0.02 |
| Andrew Copp | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.32 |
| Sheldon Dries | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.03 |
| Andreas Englund | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.24 |
| Dylan Larkin | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.05 |
| Ben Chiarot | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.11 |
| Albert Johansson | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.21 |
| Nate Danielson | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| William Wallinder | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| Anton Johansson | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| Keegan Kolesar | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Gibson | DET | 58 | 3 | 4.49 | +1.49 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | SJS | 42 | 3 | 3.04 | +0.04 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.