Sat Oct 17 · 2026-27
BUF3FINAL OT
4MTL
BUF 40%DESERVE TO WIN60% MTL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MTL had a 60% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
BUFMTL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BUF | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 3.53 | 4.63 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.24 | 2.69 |
| Shot attempts | 54 | 67 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 34 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris | 14.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.93 | -0.01 |
| Zach Benson | 21.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | +0.51 |
| Tage Thompson | 19.5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.55 | -0.45 |
| Jack Quinn | 21.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.42 | +0.34 |
| Konsta Helenius | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | -0.14 |
| Josh Doan | 15.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.79 |
| Jiri Kulich | 13.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | +0.52 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 27.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.45 |
| Olen Zellweger | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.21 | +0.57 |
| Noah Ostlund | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.33 |
| Owen Power | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | -0.25 |
| Zach Metsa | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| Louis Crevier | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.94 |
| Ryan McLeod | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.06 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.19 |
| Dennis Gilbert | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Peyton Krebs | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.19 |
| Justin Danforth | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 18.1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.77 | +0.94 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 17.9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | +0.99 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 22.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.45 |
| Nick Suzuki | 21.2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.77 | +1.04 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 14.8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.54 | +0.44 |
| Alexandre Texier | 11.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.36 | +0.33 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 23.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
| Alex Newhook | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | -0.66 |
| Noah Dobson | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.37 | -0.06 |
| Lane Hutson | 26.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.35 | +0.25 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | -0.13 |
| Josh Anderson | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.81 |
| Chris Kreider | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.64 |
| Kirby Dach | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.25 |
| Phillip Danault | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | +0.35 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.02 |
| David Reinbacher | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.04 |
| Jake Evans | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 50 | 4 | 4.63 | +0.63 |
| Jacob Fowler | MTL | 39 | 3 | 3.53 | +0.53 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.