Fri Oct 16 · 2026-27
PIT2FINAL
5COL
PIT 44%DESERVE TO WIN56% COL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — COL had a 56% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
PITCOL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| PIT | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 3.49 | 3.98 |
| xG (5v5) | 3.11 | 2.82 |
| Shot attempts | 65 | 62 |
| Shots on goal | 31 | 32 |
PIT skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 18.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | +0.46 |
| Sidney Crosby | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | +0.46 |
| Evgeni Malkin | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.72 |
| Samuel Girard | 19.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.18 |
| Ville Koivunen | 15.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.37 |
| Erik Karlsson | 20.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.68 |
| Rickard Rakell | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.83 | +0.77 |
| Tommy Novak | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.34 | -0.10 |
| Nick Robertson | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | +0.58 |
| Ben Kindel | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.06 |
| Blake Lizotte | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.31 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.27 |
| Kris Letang | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.99 |
| Spencer Stastney | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.82 |
| Kaedan Korczak | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.18 |
| Connor Dewar | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.18 |
| Declan Carlile | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.89 |
| Elmer Soderblom | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 23.0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0.54 | +0.49 |
| Martin Necas | 21.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.18 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 18.6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.23 | +0.26 |
| Cale Makar | 22.3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.37 |
| Nazem Kadri | 20.9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.84 | +0.67 |
| Brock Nelson | 20.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | +0.65 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 14.9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.40 | +0.61 |
| T.J. Hughes | 12.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | -0.66 |
| Devon Toews | 22.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.24 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.74 |
| Gavin Brindley | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.36 |
| Parker Kelly | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.50 |
| Brett Kulak | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.63 |
| Josh Manson | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.42 |
| Brent Burns | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.04 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -1.28 |
| Sam Malinski | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.28 |
| Noah Juulsen | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.88 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 51 | 2 | 3.49 | +1.49 |
| Arturs Silovs | PIT | 43 | 5 | 3.98 | -1.02 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.