ON-ICE IQ · SJS 3 @ NSH 2

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Thu Oct 15 · 2026-27

SJS3

FINAL SO

2NSH

SJS 42%DESERVE TO WIN58% NSH

TOSS-UP A toss-up on the shots — SJS had a 42% chance and got it.

Expected goals flow

SJSNSH cumulative xG · dots = goals

	SJS	NSH
Goals	3	2
xG (all)	3.31	4.22
xG (5v5)	1.72	1.80
Shot attempts	72	81
Shots on goal	32	34

SJS skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Will Smith	19.8	1	0	5	0.55	-0.11
Mason Marchment	15.7	1	0	2	0.24	+0.28
Tyler Toffoli	13.5	0	1	3	0.21	+0.22
Alexander Wennberg	21.9	0	1	0	0.16	+0.17
Igor Chernyshov	11.2	0	1	0	0.06	-0.29
Michael Kesselring	19.0	0	1	1	0.06	+0.40
Kiefer Sherwood	19.3	0	0	5	0.74	-0.12
Macklin Celebrini	23.6	0	0	3	0.64	-0.23
Ivar Stenberg	14.0	0	0	1	0.39	-0.01
Barclay Goodrow	12.0	0	0	4	0.20	+0.10
Sam Dickinson	24.6	0	0	1	0.08	-0.34
Luca Cagnoni	16.6	0	0	2	0.06	-0.14
Zack Ostapchuk	10.2	0	0	1	0.05	-0.06
Michael Misa	13.0	0	0	1	0.05	+0.05
Nolan Allan	15.5	0	0	0	0.04	+0.50
Collin Graf	14.9	0	0	0	0.02	-0.24
Jacob Trouba	24.6	0	0	1	0.02	-0.15
Dmitry Orlov	18.6	0	0	2	0.01	-0.43

NSH skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Ryan O'Reilly	21.7	1	0	4	0.85	-0.12
Filip Forsberg	24.3	0	1	6	0.64	+0.08
Roman Josi	28.5	0	1	8	0.61	+0.29
Steven Stamkos	20.6	1	0	2	0.28	-0.10
Jonathan Marchessault	17.8	0	1	2	0.16	-0.59
Alexander Kerfoot	20.1	0	0	0	0.30	+0.18
Matthew Wood	19.4	0	0	3	0.26	+0.27
Adam Edstrom	13.0	0	0	1	0.26	+0.37
Ross Colton	13.2	0	0	1	0.24	-0.04
Brady Skjei	19.8	0	0	1	0.19	-0.36
Nicolas Hague	15.4	0	0	4	0.18	+0.32
Nils Hoglander	8.2	0	0	2	0.10	-0.04
Reid Schaefer	10.6	0	0	0	0.07	+0.37
Adam Wilsby	21.8	0	0	0	0.05	+0.39
Jayden Struble	14.6	0	0	0	0.04	+0.09
Jack Drury	16.9	0	0	0	0.00	+0.25
Nick Perbix	16.9	0	0	0	0.00	-0.58
Vitali Pinchuk	8.3	0	0	0	0.00	-0.38

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	NSH	50	2	3.31	+1.31
Alex Nedeljkovic	SJS	58	2	4.22	+2.22

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.