Thu Oct 15 · 2026-27
SEA3FINAL OT
4TBL
SEA 39%DESERVE TO WIN61% TBL
DESERVED
TBL earned it — a 61% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
SEATBL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| SEA | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 3.02 | 4.20 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.49 | 2.57 |
| Shot attempts | 47 | 61 |
| Shots on goal | 27 | 35 |
SEA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Winterton | 15.3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.79 | +0.64 |
| Jared McCann | 16.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.37 | -0.21 |
| Matty Beniers | 16.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.32 |
| Vince Dunn | 28.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.41 |
| Chandler Stephenson | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.59 |
| Jordan Eberle | 17.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.66 |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 17.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.64 |
| Shane Wright | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.70 | +0.09 |
| Berkly Catton | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.18 |
| Brandon Montour | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | -0.20 |
| Adam Larsson | 27.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | -0.58 |
| Ryker Evans | 26.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| Ville Ottavainen | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.43 |
| Josh Mahura | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.64 |
| Bobby McMann | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.69 |
| Kaapo Kakko | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.21 |
| Ben Meyers | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.70 |
| Mackie Samoskevich | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 23.4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1.18 | +0.36 |
| Jake Guentzel | 19.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.46 | -0.20 |
| Dominic James | 15.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | -0.56 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 15.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | +0.33 |
| Victor Hedman | 17.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | -0.11 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 14.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.41 |
| Brayden Point | 18.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.04 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 18.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.38 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.75 | +0.06 |
| John Carlson | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | +0.36 |
| J.J. Moser | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.50 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.27 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.64 |
| Erik Cernak | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | +0.72 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.40 |
| Emil Lilleberg | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.76 |
| Max Crozier | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.22 |
| Conor Geekie | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer | SEA | 49 | 4 | 4.20 | +0.20 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 40 | 3 | 3.02 | +0.02 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.