Thu Oct 15 · 2026-27
BUF5FINAL OT
4TOR
BUF 50%DESERVE TO WIN50% TOR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — BUF had a 50% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
BUFTOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BUF | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 3.11 | 2.86 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.01 | 2.29 |
| Shot attempts | 61 | 47 |
| Shots on goal | 34 | 30 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn | 18.1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.61 | +0.21 |
| Zach Benson | 21.3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.41 | +0.29 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 28.4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | -0.11 |
| Noah Ostlund | 21.6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.29 |
| Tage Thompson | 21.2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.55 | -0.27 |
| Owen Power | 28.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | -0.14 |
| Dennis Gilbert | 10.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.55 |
| Zach Metsa | 12.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Olen Zellweger | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.34 | -0.35 |
| Konsta Helenius | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.30 | +0.03 |
| Ryan McLeod | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | +0.22 |
| Louis Crevier | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.24 |
| Peyton Krebs | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.63 |
| Josh Doan | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.59 |
| Josh Norris | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.16 |
| Justin Danforth | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.15 |
| Sam Carrick | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.24 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko | 18.6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.40 | -0.22 |
| John Tavares | 11.8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| Jack Roslovic | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.44 | +0.15 |
| Auston Matthews | 22.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.18 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.46 |
| Darren Raddysh | 27.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | +0.41 |
| Colton Sissons | 17.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.14 |
| William Nylander | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.49 | +0.15 |
| Teddy Blueger | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.38 | +0.29 |
| Gavin McKenna | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.10 |
| Nick Blankenburg | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.35 |
| Nick Paul | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.21 |
| Morgan Rielly | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | -0.31 |
| Troy Stecher | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.38 |
| Jake McCabe | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.56 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Zack MacEwen | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 49 | 5 | 3.11 | -1.89 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 42 | 4 | 2.86 | -1.14 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.