Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
TOR4FINAL
5UTA
TOR 51%DESERVE TO WIN49% UTA
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — UTA had a 49% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TORUTA
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TOR | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 2.92 | 2.57 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.10 | 1.69 |
| Shot attempts | 50 | 57 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 28 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 20.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.56 | +0.46 |
| John Tavares | 18.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.48 | -0.37 |
| William Nylander | 21.8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.46 | -0.18 |
| Jack Roslovic | 17.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.17 |
| Gavin McKenna | 17.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | -0.84 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 18.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.41 |
| Darren Raddysh | 24.6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | -0.25 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | -0.39 |
| Morgan Rielly | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.06 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.12 |
| Teddy Blueger | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.20 |
| Troy Stecher | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.01 |
| Nick Blankenburg | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.20 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.21 |
| Colton Sissons | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| Jake McCabe | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Nick Paul | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.49 |
| Marshall Rifai | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.29 |
UTA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther | 15.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.17 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 23.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.07 |
| Barrett Hayton | 14.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.37 | +0.40 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 16.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.36 | +0.36 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 22.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | +0.07 |
| Daniil But | 10.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | +0.39 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 15.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | +0.49 |
| Logan Cooley | 18.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | +0.07 |
| Jack McBain | 10.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.45 |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | +0.43 |
| Clayton Keller | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.47 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Andrew Peeke | 15.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
| Anders Lee | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | +0.42 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.37 |
| John Marino | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.90 |
| Lawson Crouse | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.48 |
| Nate Schmidt | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.84 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | TOR | 41 | 5 | 2.57 | -2.43 |
| Karel Vejmelka | UTA | 40 | 4 | 2.92 | -1.08 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.