Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
VGK5FINAL
2NSH
VGK 46%DESERVE TO WIN54% NSH
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — VGK had a 46% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
VGKNSH
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| VGK | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 1.99 | 2.23 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.85 | 1.55 |
| Shot attempts | 45 | 60 |
| Shots on goal | 25 | 27 |
VGK skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden | 15.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.36 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 19.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | +0.18 |
| Jack Eichel | 17.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.37 | -0.31 |
| Tomas Hertl | 14.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.33 |
| Trevor Connelly | 14.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.21 |
| Mark Stone | 16.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | -0.31 |
| William Karlsson | 15.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.29 |
| Dylan Coghlan | 16.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | +0.14 |
| Mitch Marner | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.36 |
| Raphael Lavoie | 13.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.30 |
| Noah Hanifin | 19.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.03 |
| Brayden McNabb | 18.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.32 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.12 |
| Shea Theodore | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.07 |
| Braeden Bowman | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Nic Dowd | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly | 20.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | -0.39 |
| Filip Forsberg | 23.1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.44 | -0.16 |
| Adam Edstrom | 15.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.16 |
| Nicolas Hague | 14.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.08 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | +0.23 |
| Vitali Pinchuk | 10.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | +0.43 |
| Brady Skjei | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.22 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.15 |
| Roman Josi | 23.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.23 |
| Adam Wilsby | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.46 |
| Ross Colton | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.10 |
| Steven Stamkos | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.13 |
| Jack Drury | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| Nick Perbix | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.37 |
| Nils Hoglander | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.33 |
| Jayden Struble | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Matthew Wood | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.27 |
| Jack Ahcan | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | NSH | 35 | 5 | 1.99 | -3.01 |
| Adin Hill | VGK | 37 | 2 | 2.23 | +0.23 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.