Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
COL3FINAL
2DAL
COL 50%DESERVE TO WIN50% DAL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — COL had a 50% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
COLDAL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| COL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 3.04 | 2.84 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.68 | 2.08 |
| Shot attempts | 47 | 59 |
| Shots on goal | 25 | 26 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 20.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | +0.07 |
| Martin Necas | 23.3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.04 |
| Devon Toews | 25.2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.33 | +0.13 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 19.8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.28 |
| Nicolas Roy | 9.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | -0.45 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.14 |
| Josh Manson | 19.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.64 |
| Nazem Kadri | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.53 | -0.34 |
| Brock Nelson | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.51 | +0.14 |
| T.J. Hughes | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | -0.50 |
| Noah Juulsen | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.25 |
| Parker Kelly | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.22 |
| Brett Kulak | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.21 |
| Brent Burns | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.65 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| Sam Malinski | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.42 |
DAL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Seguin | 17.3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.52 | +0.16 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 25.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.21 |
| Roope Hintz | 16.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.00 |
| Jason Robertson | 22.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.27 |
| Sam Steel | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.59 | -0.20 |
| Justin Hryckowian | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.30 | +0.45 |
| Jamie Benn | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.03 |
| Arttu Hyry | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | +0.60 |
| Nils Lundkvist | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | +0.24 |
| Colin Blackwell | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | +0.29 |
| Lian Bichsel | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| Radek Faksa | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.13 |
| Esa Lindell | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| Thomas Harley | 25.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.39 |
| Kyle Capobianco | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.11 |
| Tyler Myers | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Mikko Rantanen | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.13 |
| Oskar Bäck | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 40 | 2 | 2.84 | +0.84 |
| Jake Oettinger | DAL | 37 | 3 | 3.04 | +0.04 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.