Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
STL7FINAL
2OTT
STL 64%DESERVE TO WIN36% OTT
DESERVED
STL earned it — a 64% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
STLOTT
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| STL | OTT | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 3.62 | 1.77 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.34 | 1.20 |
| Shot attempts | 54 | 42 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 17 |
STL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish | 15.5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.70 | +0.91 |
| Pius Suter | 15.3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.57 | +0.29 |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 18.4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | +0.33 |
| Jake Neighbours | 16.1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | +0.20 |
| Connor McMichael | 14.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | +0.71 |
| Adam Jiricek | 15.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.30 | +0.34 |
| Dylan Holloway | 15.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| Jonatan Berggren | 13.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.65 |
| Colton Parayko | 19.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.33 |
| Brandon Carlo | 18.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.33 |
| Cam Fowler | 22.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.39 |
| Robert Thomas | 17.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.15 |
| Ross Johnston | 9.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.21 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | -0.08 |
| Dalibor Dvorsky | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.20 |
| Philip Broberg | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.43 |
| Justin Barron | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.48 |
| Dylan Peterson | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.23 |
OTT skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | -0.44 |
| Shane Pinto | 18.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | -0.25 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 12.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.26 | -0.19 |
| Tim Stützle | 22.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.04 |
| Drake Batherson | 17.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.17 |
| Stephen Halliday | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.58 |
| Warren Foegele | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | +0.12 |
| Ridly Greig | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.33 |
| Dylan Cozens | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.26 |
| Hoyt Stanley | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.89 |
| Michael Amadio | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.56 |
| Jorian Donovan | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.09 |
| Thomas Chabot | 27.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.06 |
| Jordan Spence | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.16 |
| Tyler Kleven | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Andre Burakovsky | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Nick Cousins | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.79 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer | STL | 26 | 2 | 1.77 | -0.23 |
| Samuel Ersson | OTT | 41 | 7 | 3.62 | -3.38 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.