Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
TBL1FINAL
4NYR
TBL 47%DESERVE TO WIN53% NYR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — NYR had a 53% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TBLNYR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TBL | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 2.47 | 2.63 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.64 | 1.69 |
| Shot attempts | 58 | 43 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 23 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg | 13.7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | +0.35 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 15.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | +0.24 |
| Victor Hedman | 13.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.34 |
| Brayden Point | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.89 | +0.55 |
| John Carlson | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | +0.46 |
| Jake Guentzel | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.07 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.85 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 23.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.30 |
| Brandon Hagel | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.73 |
| J.J. Moser | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.46 |
| Erik Cernak | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.12 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.05 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.14 |
| Gage Goncalves | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.20 |
| Max Crozier | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.37 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.07 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
| Conor Geekie | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.16 |
NYR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière | 19.4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.74 | +0.30 |
| Adam Fox | 22.4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.35 |
| Marcus Pettersson | 21.7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.82 |
| Tye Kartye | 16.4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.46 |
| Mika Zibanejad | 23.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.61 | -0.28 |
| Will Cuylle | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.36 | +0.09 |
| J.T. Miller | 20.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.20 |
| Sean Durzi | 21.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.77 |
| Noah Laba | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.07 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | -0.32 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | +0.07 |
| Gabe Perreault | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.05 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.17 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.59 |
| Braden Schneider | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.40 |
| Alberts Smits | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
| Matt Rempe | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Cole Beaudoin | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 30 | 3 | 2.63 | -0.37 |
| Dylan Garand | NYR | 42 | 1 | 2.47 | +1.47 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.