Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
BUF3FINAL SO
4MTL
BUF 38%DESERVE TO WIN62% MTL
DESERVED
MTL earned it — a 62% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
BUFMTL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BUF | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 2.21 | 3.45 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.65 | 1.91 |
| Shot attempts | 43 | 57 |
| Shots on goal | 17 | 38 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olen Zellweger | 25.8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.05 | -0.11 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 26.6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.21 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 11.9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Zach Benson | 19.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.70 |
| Dennis Gilbert | 8.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.18 |
| Josh Norris | 11.8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.00 |
| Noah Ostlund | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | +0.43 |
| Jack Quinn | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.36 | +0.54 |
| Josh Doan | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | -0.39 |
| Jiri Kulich | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.62 |
| Tage Thompson | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.23 |
| Zach Metsa | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.11 |
| Owen Power | 28.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.37 |
| Louis Crevier | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| Peyton Krebs | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.50 |
| Justin Danforth | 10.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.11 |
| Ryan McLeod | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Konsta Helenius | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 19.8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.54 | +0.23 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 19.7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.27 | +0.40 |
| Lane Hutson | 27.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| Nick Suzuki | 23.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.87 | +0.25 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 15.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | +0.17 |
| Josh Anderson | 14.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | -0.12 |
| Alexandre Texier | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.38 | +0.05 |
| Phillip Danault | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.27 |
| Noah Dobson | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | -0.33 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.19 |
| Kirby Dach | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.15 |
| Alex Newhook | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.25 |
| Jake Evans | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 25.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.26 |
| Adam Engstrom | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | +0.41 |
| Owen Beck | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Chris Kreider | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.34 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 48 | 3 | 3.45 | +0.45 |
| Jacob Fowler | MTL | 27 | 3 | 2.21 | -0.79 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.