Tue Oct 13 · 2026-27
FLA7FINAL
3CBJ
FLA 51%DESERVE TO WIN49% CBJ
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — FLA had a 51% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
FLACBJ
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| FLA | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 3.94 | 3.53 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.35 | 2.72 |
| Shot attempts | 65 | 59 |
| Shots on goal | 28 | 27 |
FLA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk | 17.3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.00 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 16.3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.65 | -0.30 |
| Seth Jones | 23.2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.11 | -0.67 |
| Sam Reinhart | 19.4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1.26 | -0.61 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 18.4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.55 | -0.18 |
| Anton Lundell | 18.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | -0.19 |
| Lars Eller | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.24 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.21 |
| Sam Lafferty | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | +0.26 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.15 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.26 |
| Bokondji Imama | 10.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.25 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.07 |
| Sam Bennett | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.20 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | +0.20 |
| Gustav Forsling | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.43 |
| Niko Mikkola | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.52 |
| Uvis Balinskis | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
CBJ skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson | 22.6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | +1.06 |
| Kent Johnson | 15.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.61 | +0.50 |
| Cole Sillinger | 16.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | -0.33 |
| Denton Mateychuk | 19.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | -0.66 |
| Charlie Coyle | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | +0.09 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 15.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | +0.46 |
| Sean Monahan | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.06 | +0.04 |
| Ryan Lomberg | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.38 | +0.05 |
| Conor Garland | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.33 |
| Adam Fantilli | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.59 |
| Matthew Knies | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.45 |
| Zach Werenski | 26.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | +0.52 |
| Danton Heinen | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | -0.32 |
| Dmitri Voronkov | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.22 |
| Carson Soucy | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.54 |
| Jake Christiansen | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.16 |
| Erik Gudbranson | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Mathieu Olivier | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot | CBJ | 36 | 6 | 2.94 | -3.06 |
| Akira Schmid | FLA | 44 | 3 | 3.53 | +0.53 |
| Jet Greaves | CBJ | 10 | 0 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.