Mon Oct 12 · 2026-27
VGK2FINAL
4MIN
VGK 44%DESERVE TO WIN56% MIN
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MIN had a 56% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
VGKMIN
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| VGK | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 3.01 | 3.54 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.12 | 2.57 |
| Shot attempts | 63 | 64 |
| Shots on goal | 23 | 28 |
VGK skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson | 17.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.53 | +0.47 |
| Brett Howden | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.44 | +0.01 |
| Tomas Hertl | 18.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | -0.27 |
| Mitch Marner | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.09 |
| Raphael Lavoie | 10.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.35 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 17.4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | -0.38 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.41 | +0.47 |
| Mark Stone | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.17 |
| Noah Hanifin | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | -0.64 |
| Shea Theodore | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.41 |
| Brayden McNabb | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | +0.35 |
| Nic Dowd | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.92 |
| Jack Eichel | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.28 |
| Trevor Connelly | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.26 |
| Braeden Bowman | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.52 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.43 |
| Dylan Coghlan | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
MIN skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes | 22.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.45 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 21.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.97 | +0.39 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 19.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.82 | +0.59 |
| Danila Yurov | 10.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.37 | +0.19 |
| Max Shabanov | 14.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | -0.06 |
| Matt Boldy | 19.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | +0.17 |
| Olli Maatta | 25.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.18 |
| Rieger Lorenz | 9.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.08 |
| Bobby Brink | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.39 |
| Yakov Trenin | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | +0.01 |
| Blake Coleman | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.52 |
| Ryan Hartman | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | -0.22 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.37 |
| Michael McCarron | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | -0.11 |
| Jonas Brodin | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.14 |
| Zach Bogosian | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.00 |
| Daemon Hunt | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.67 |
| Nico Sturm | 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.16 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | VGK | 46 | 3 | 3.54 | +0.54 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 44 | 2 | 3.01 | +1.01 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.