Mon Oct 12 · 2026-27
FLA3FINAL
5BUF
FLA 49%DESERVE TO WIN51% BUF
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — BUF had a 51% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
FLABUF
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| FLA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 3.45 | 3.36 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.17 | 2.37 |
| Shot attempts | 63 | 49 |
| Shots on goal | 23 | 32 |
FLA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart | 20.4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.14 | -1.03 |
| Seth Jones | 23.9 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.34 | -0.52 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.60 | -0.33 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 20.4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | +0.11 |
| Anton Lundell | 14.8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | +0.10 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 18.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | -0.41 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | 12.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Lars Eller | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | -0.03 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.12 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.08 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -1.03 |
| Gustav Forsling | 24.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.12 |
| Sam Bennett | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.23 |
| Radko Gudas | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.68 |
| Niko Mikkola | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.58 |
| Sam Lafferty | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.07 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.82 |
| Bokondji Imama | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 18.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.17 |
| Jack Quinn | 17.6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.40 |
| Peyton Krebs | 15.1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.26 |
| Owen Power | 26.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.52 |
| Zach Benson | 19.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.58 | +0.44 |
| Olen Zellweger | 20.1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.49 | +0.68 |
| Josh Doan | 16.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.32 | +0.32 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 9.1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.28 | +0.24 |
| Ryan McLeod | 16.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.74 |
| Noah Ostlund | 17.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | +0.06 |
| Josh Norris | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.42 | +0.23 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | +0.29 |
| Jiri Kulich | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.33 |
| Louis Crevier | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.24 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.30 |
| Tyson Kozak | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | +0.17 |
| Konsta Helenius | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.18 |
| Zach Metsa | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.40 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | FLA | 16 | 2 | 1.44 | -0.56 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 29 | 1 | 1.90 | +0.90 |
| Akira Schmid | FLA | 26 | 3 | 1.92 | -1.08 |
| Colten Ellis | BUF | 17 | 2 | 1.55 | -0.45 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.