Sun Oct 11 · 2026-27
CAR4FINAL
1PHI
CAR 65%DESERVE TO WIN35% PHI
DESERVED
CAR earned it — a 65% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
CARPHI
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CAR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 3.48 | 1.59 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.95 | 1.40 |
| Shot attempts | 59 | 41 |
| Shots on goal | 30 | 19 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 18.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.45 | +0.76 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 16.4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.88 |
| William Carrier | 12.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.27 |
| Mark Jankowski | 15.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.59 | +0.26 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 17.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | +1.01 |
| Sean Walker | 22.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.50 |
| Jordan Martinook | 14.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 21.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.30 |
| Jackson Blake | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.54 | +0.80 |
| Taylor Hall | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.52 | +0.95 |
| Logan Stankoven | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | +0.85 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | +1.07 |
| Mike Reilly | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | +0.29 |
| Eric Robinson | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.36 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.23 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.36 |
| K'Andre Miller | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.25 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.32 |
PHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Seeler | 22.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.00 |
| Christian Dvorak | 17.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | -0.44 |
| Denver Barkey | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.29 |
| Noah Cates | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.17 |
| Jamie Drysdale | 24.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -1.24 |
| Owen Tippett | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | -0.45 |
| Porter Martone | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| Oliver Bonk | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.31 |
| Michael Bunting | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.49 |
| Matvei Michkov | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.38 |
| Trevor Zegras | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.60 |
| David Jiricek | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.20 |
| Sean Couturier | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.76 |
| Travis Sanheim | 21.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.34 |
| Simon Benoit | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -1.20 |
| Tyson Foerster | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.83 |
| Carl Grundstrom | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.18 |
| Noel Acciari | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.31 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll | PHI | 44 | 4 | 3.48 | -0.52 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | 34 | 1 | 1.59 | +0.59 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.