ON-ICE IQ · TBL 5 @ NYI 3

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Sat Oct 10 · 2026-27

TBL5

FINAL

3NYI

TBL 48%DESERVE TO WIN52% NYI

TOSS-UP A toss-up on the shots — TBL had a 48% chance and got it.

Expected goals flow

TBLNYI cumulative xG · dots = goals

	TBL	NYI
Goals	5	3
xG (all)	2.43	2.44
xG (5v5)	1.29	1.64
Shot attempts	50	47
Shots on goal	26	23

TBL skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Brandon Hagel	21.5	3	1	6	0.99	+0.20
Jake Guentzel	19.5	2	0	4	0.37	+0.17
Nikita Kucherov	17.8	0	2	1	0.11	-0.05
Max Crozier	16.5	0	2	2	0.02	+0.14
Anthony Cirelli	18.1	0	1	0	0.07	+0.42
Ryan McDonagh	15.9	0	1	1	0.01	-0.26
Victor Hedman	10.6	0	1	0	0.00	-0.03
Zemgus Girgensons	15.2	0	0	4	0.29	-0.59
Scott Sabourin	9.5	0	0	1	0.25	+0.10
Brayden Point	18.9	0	0	1	0.24	-0.26
Conor Geekie	11.4	0	0	1	0.14	+0.10
John Carlson	20.7	0	0	1	0.08	-0.23
Erik Cernak	19.0	0	0	1	0.07	-0.25
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	13.5	0	0	2	0.03	+0.05
J.J. Moser	17.0	0	0	1	0.02	-0.11
Gage Goncalves	18.2	0	0	0	0.00	-0.10
Pontus Holmberg	17.6	0	0	0	0.00	-0.45
Ilya Mikheyev	15.3	0	0	0	0.00	-0.59

NYI skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Tony DeAngelo	16.6	1	1	2	0.14	+0.45
Brayden Schenn	17.3	1	0	2	0.64	-0.07
Bo Horvat	20.2	0	1	3	0.58	+0.72
Matthew Schaefer	27.1	0	1	8	0.36	+0.64
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	14.6	1	0	1	0.18	+0.02
Ondrej Palat	15.4	0	1	0	0.11	+0.38
Matias Maccelli	14.5	0	1	0	0.00	-0.31
Anthony Duclair	13.3	0	0	1	0.16	-0.03
Emil Heineman	13.7	0	0	2	0.16	+0.76
Scott Mayfield	14.8	0	0	1	0.07	+0.21
Logan Stanley	19.6	0	0	2	0.03	+0.17
Adam Pelech	21.1	0	0	0	0.01	-0.41
Calum Ritchie	13.6	0	0	1	0.00	-0.15
Ryan Pulock	19.2	0	0	0	0.00	-0.26
Kyle Palmieri	15.3	0	0	0	0.00	+0.65
Victor Eklund	13.4	0	0	0	0.00	-0.07
Simon Holmstrom	13.3	0	0	0	0.00	-0.69
Casey Cizikas	10.2	0	0	0	0.00	-0.27

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	TBL	31	3	2.44	-0.56
Ilya Sorokin	NYI	31	4	2.43	-1.57

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.