Sat Oct 10 · 2026-27
TOR6FINAL
3COL
TOR 31%DESERVE TO WIN69% COL
STOLE IT
TOR stole it — only a 31% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
TORCOL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TOR | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.41 | 4.67 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.96 | 2.86 |
| Shot attempts | 43 | 78 |
| Shots on goal | 23 | 33 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | 19.9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.52 | -0.43 |
| Auston Matthews | 22.1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.66 | -0.12 |
| Nick Paul | 17.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | -0.26 |
| Nick Blankenburg | 16.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.30 | -0.71 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.08 |
| Gavin McKenna | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.10 |
| Morgan Rielly | 18.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.03 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.34 |
| Jack Roslovic | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.56 | -0.34 |
| Colton Sissons | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.28 | -0.57 |
| Jake McCabe | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | -0.88 |
| Teddy Blueger | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.11 |
| Troy Stecher | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.48 |
| Chris Tanev | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Darren Raddysh | 21.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.09 |
| Bo Groulx | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.37 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 23.9 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0.75 | +0.82 |
| Brock Nelson | 17.8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.73 | +0.60 |
| Martin Necas | 24.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | +0.86 |
| Cale Makar | 21.6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | +0.39 |
| Brett Kulak | 18.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
| Devon Toews | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.34 |
| Nazem Kadri | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.61 | +0.31 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.49 | +0.53 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.75 |
| T.J. Hughes | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.45 | +0.15 |
| Zachary L'Heureux | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.30 |
| Nicolas Roy | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.59 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.15 |
| Josh Manson | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.75 |
| Brent Burns | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.58 |
| Parker Kelly | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.51 |
| Sam Malinski | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 52 | 3 | 4.67 | +1.67 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 31 | 5 | 2.41 | -2.59 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.