Sat Oct 10 · 2026-27
NSH2FINAL SO
3OTT
NSH 38%DESERVE TO WIN62% OTT
DESERVED
OTT earned it — a 62% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
NSHOTT
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| NSH | OTT | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 1.71 | 2.84 |
| xG (5v5) | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| Shot attempts | 47 | 65 |
| Shots on goal | 18 | 20 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault | 17.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | -0.35 |
| Ross Colton | 8.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.07 |
| Roman Josi | 24.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | -0.22 |
| Vitali Pinchuk | 11.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.06 |
| Steven Stamkos | 19.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.48 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 14.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.09 |
| Matthew Wood | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.34 | +0.19 |
| Filip Forsberg | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | +0.04 |
| Adam Wilsby | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.25 |
| Jack Drury | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.22 |
| Reid Schaefer | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.17 |
| Nils Hoglander | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.18 |
| Adam Edstrom | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | +0.11 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.58 |
| Brady Skjei | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.25 |
| Nicolas Hague | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.27 |
| Jayden Struble | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.27 |
| Nick Perbix | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
OTT skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle | 26.1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.80 | +0.18 |
| Drake Batherson | 19.8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.61 | +0.21 |
| Thomas Chabot | 28.7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | +0.45 |
| Dylan Cozens | 20.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | -0.04 |
| Shane Pinto | 21.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | +0.27 |
| Claude Giroux | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.39 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | +0.12 |
| Andre Burakovsky | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.06 |
| Michael Amadio | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.30 |
| Ridly Greig | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.02 |
| Nick Cousins | 10.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.38 |
| Jordan Spence | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | +0.51 |
| Tyler Kleven | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.38 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.35 |
| Nikolas Matinpalo | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
| Warren Foegele | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Hoyt Stanley | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Stephen Halliday | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | OTT | 28 | 2 | 1.71 | -0.29 |
| Matt Murray | NSH | 39 | 2 | 2.84 | +0.84 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.