Sat Oct 10 · 2026-27
UTA4FINAL
1BUF
UTA 59%DESERVE TO WIN41% BUF
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — UTA had a 59% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
UTABUF
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| UTA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 4.37 | 2.90 |
| xG (5v5) | 3.35 | 1.78 |
| Shot attempts | 75 | 62 |
| Shots on goal | 30 | 24 |
UTA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee | 12.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.20 | +1.20 |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 12.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.56 | +1.30 |
| John Marino | 19.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | +1.55 |
| Barrett Hayton | 12.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.92 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 19.2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.56 | +0.33 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 25.4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.26 | +0.29 |
| Clayton Keller | 18.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | +0.35 |
| Logan Cooley | 20.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.42 |
| Dylan Guenther | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.50 | +0.33 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.28 | +0.13 |
| Daniil But | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.08 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | -0.15 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.14 |
| Jack McBain | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| Lawson Crouse | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.12 |
| Andrew Peeke | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.10 |
| Nate Schmidt | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +1.10 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.06 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 19.9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.47 | -0.59 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 25.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.27 | -0.21 |
| Noah Ostlund | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.04 | +0.04 |
| Jack Quinn | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | -0.34 |
| Peyton Krebs | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | -0.78 |
| Zach Benson | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | -0.06 |
| Josh Doan | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.08 |
| Josh Norris | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.65 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.41 |
| Olen Zellweger | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| Owen Power | 25.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.64 |
| Louis Crevier | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.93 |
| Ryan McLeod | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.31 |
| Zach Metsa | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.62 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.49 |
| Justin Danforth | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Sam Carrick | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Tyson Kozak | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | UTA | 39 | 1 | 2.90 | +1.90 |
| Colten Ellis | BUF | 56 | 4 | 4.37 | +0.37 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.