Sat Oct 10 · 2026-27
MIN4FINAL
1FLA
MIN 49%DESERVE TO WIN51% FLA
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MIN had a 49% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MINFLA
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MIN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 3.26 | 3.19 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.20 | 1.78 |
| Shot attempts | 57 | 58 |
| Shots on goal | 29 | 30 |
MIN skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 20.2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.44 | +0.50 |
| Matt Boldy | 20.9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.29 | +0.26 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 18.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.61 | +0.00 |
| Quinn Hughes | 25.6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | +0.36 |
| Max Shabanov | 13.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 24.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.57 |
| Ryan Hartman | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.48 | +0.20 |
| Rieger Lorenz | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.29 | +0.07 |
| Danila Yurov | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.25 |
| Yakov Trenin | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.21 |
| Bobby Brink | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | +0.59 |
| Daemon Hunt | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.58 |
| Blake Coleman | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.10 |
| Jonas Brodin | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.19 |
| Nico Sturm | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.05 |
| Olli Maatta | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Michael McCarron | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
| David Spacek | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
FLA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk | 18.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.57 | +0.29 |
| Anton Lundell | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.65 | +0.06 |
| Sam Bennett | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.36 | +0.63 |
| Sam Reinhart | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | -0.83 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.19 |
| Bokondji Imama | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | -0.15 |
| Lars Eller | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.60 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | -0.56 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | +0.24 |
| Seth Jones | 23.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | +0.58 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | +0.11 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -1.05 |
| Gustav Forsling | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.35 |
| Niko Mikkola | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.60 |
| Radko Gudas | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.05 |
| Sam Lafferty | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | FLA | 48 | 3 | 3.26 | +0.26 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 45 | 1 | 3.19 | +2.19 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.