Sat Oct 10 · 2026-27
EDM3FINAL
1SJS
EDM 61%DESERVE TO WIN39% SJS
DESERVED
EDM earned it — a 61% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
EDMSJS
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| EDM | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 3.17 | 1.71 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.99 | 1.02 |
| Shot attempts | 50 | 43 |
| Shots on goal | 20 | 20 |
EDM skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 24.1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.26 | +1.27 |
| Mattias Ekholm | 22.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | +1.19 |
| Alex Formenton | 14.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | +0.01 |
| Evan Bouchard | 24.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | +1.30 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | 20.8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +1.01 |
| Josh Samanski | 6.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | +0.10 |
| Mathieu Joseph | 14.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.01 |
| Connor Murphy | 24.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
| Isaac Howard | 9.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Trent Frederic | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.55 | +0.01 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.49 | +1.01 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | -0.05 |
| Jason Dickinson | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| Filip Hallander | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.03 |
| Ty Emberson | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.03 |
| Owen Michaels | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.36 |
| Ryan Shea | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
SJS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 22.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | -0.46 |
| Michael Misa | 12.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.90 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | -0.04 |
| Ivar Stenberg | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.34 | -0.13 |
| Mason Marchment | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.14 |
| Darnell Nurse | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.13 | -1.09 |
| Igor Chernyshov | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.01 |
| Collin Graf | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.86 |
| Will Smith | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.06 |
| Jacob Trouba | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.04 |
| Michael Kesselring | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -1.34 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.07 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.20 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.07 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.25 |
| Luca Cagnoni | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.26 |
| Sam Dickinson | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | EDM | 33 | 1 | 1.71 | +0.71 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | SJS | 35 | 3 | 3.17 | +0.17 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.